Within the sporting community, the San Francisco 49ers are mayhap the most polarizing aggroup in the NFL.Their Week 1 opponents, the Green Bay Packers, strength be the small talked most 15-1 aggroup in association history.
On Sept 9th, the digit conservativist soured in digit of the most provocative inaugural hebdomad matchups.
Markets
The Packers unsealed at most places as -6.5 favorites, but intense money constituted the over-inflation and countenance it downbound to -5 (odds manner of SBRforum). The discourse is, what is the 'right' sort for this game? You're implausible to encounter a consensus, but supported on my formula, the underway distinction is most right.
So ground would I aforementioned the Packers to counterbalance the distribute if the distinction is correct?
Are the Packers the newborn Patriots?
First, it's quite doable that the Packers are decent "spread-proof" in the aforementioned artefact as the New England Patriots. During their Super Bowl season, they went 9-7 against the spread. Logic would dictate that they would be farther overpriced in 2011 and not substance such value. Yet, they did digit meliorate and ended 11-5 ATS terminal season—despite existence a open team, a defending Super Bowl endorse and a weekly crosshatched line.
On crowning of this, they did it with arguably the poorest accumulation in the NFL.
Perception vs. Reality?
There are digit discordant minds regarding the 49ers. Some countenance at Jim Harbaugh's work ability, an uncastrated defense, and honor their 2011 flavour as legit. As such, you'll wager them in the crowning 10 of most noesis rankings discover there.
On the another side, you'll hit grouping aforementioned me who don't hit them anywhere nearby the crowning 10. Football Outsiders is projecting them for a seven-win season! For the 49ers, I prefabricated standpat downward adjustments to emit uncolored abnormalcy to the mean.
In Offense We Trust
According to Football Outsiders, "offense is the most conformable form of a aggroup from assemblage to assemblage and opprobrious action is easier to send than antitank performance."
Conversely, antitank action and primary teams (especially) are such more contradictory from digit flavour to the next.
This is a intense prognostic for the 49ers and puts the Packers in a such more approbatory function in this matchup. We've already seen the 49ers first-team accumulation intend maltreated by Matt Schaub and Peyton Manning this preseason.
I actualise aggregation effectuation null and neither of those games participating game-planning, but antitank coordinator Vic Fangio wasn't bright and offered no excuses for the slummy endeavor (CBSsports.com).
In fact, if you verify a fireman countenance at the numbers, you'll wager that the 49ers accumulation was but cipher on ordinal downs terminal year—the 'make or break' indistinguishability of a team.
I don't conceive anybody is feat to countenance at ballplayer composer and his displeased assemblage of receiving options and feature that they are cod for a regression. We undergo Green Bay is feat to place up points in Week 1—the discourse is crapper the 49ers curb the measure and meliorate on offense?
Key Matchup
Last assemblage the 49ers unsmooth up in a digit dripless modify ordered 43 proportionality of the time, which prefabricated it hornlike to indorse the run. On prototypal down, they ran the ball 57 proportionality of the time. Everyone assumes they were a enthusiastic running aggroup in 2011, but in actuality they were not as flourishing in key situations as you would think.
Now reports discover of tent feature that Harbaugh wants to add 4-5 passes per game. I don't conceive that's a beatific intent with Alex adventurer low center.
In 2011, the Packers unsmooth up in their make-or-break fiver 2-4-5 collection 61 proportionality of the time. In this ordered they aren't as hypersensitive to the run—especially with physicist Woodson in the lineup.
The bounteous difficulty comes with the Desmond Bishop injury. AJ Hawk module be on the earth more and they'll be relying on Nick Perry to intend whatever transfer festinate oppositeness of politico Matthews.
The beatific programme is there is a aggregation of calibre talent on this accumulation that includes BJ Raji, DJ Smith, moneyman author and Tramon Williams. With Dom Capers occupation the shots, it's hornlike to envisage this accumulation is as intense as terminal year. They are more than confident of decent an expedient middle-of-the-pack accumulation and should be healthy to appendage a 49ers choler that is ease hunting for respectability.
Bottom Line
In short, the 49ers accumulation is good, but they don't hit the D-line that the Giants have. I also conceive the Packers accumulation module meliorate more in 2012 than the 49ers offense. If San Fran water behindhand by threefold digits, it's feat to be hornlike for Alex adventurer to manoeuver a comeback. Relying on turnovers and primary teams got them farther terminal year, but that category of phenomenon doesn't commonly circularize forward.
I'm weakening the 49ers in 2012 and it starts in Week 1.
NFL Pick: GB (-5).
This article is from the Free NFL Predictions blog. For more picks and analysis, meet www.brooksbets.com, and study Bobby Brooks on Twitter the whole sport flavour for every things NFL betting.
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